Stocks remain generally under pressure in Asian session today. Japan is back from holiday with Nikkei plunged to the lowest point in more than a year before paring some loss. Nikkei still trading down -640 pts, or -4.1% at the time of writing and is threatening 15000 handle. Japan finance minister Taro Aso warned investors about the strength in yen ans describe recent rise as “rough movements”. He pledged to “watch the foreign-exchange market with a sense of tension, and we will act appropriately if that becomes necessary.” USD/JPY dipped to as low as 110.98 yesterday and turned into consolidations just ahead of 110 handle.

Development in crude oil price is another key factor on investors sentiments. WTI is recovering on OPEC jawboning. United Arab Emirates energy minister Suhail bin Mohammed was reported saying that OPEC were ready to work on production cut together and the current low prices were already capping output. However, it should be noted that markets will remain skeptical on such rumors until there are concrete actions agreed. WTI crude oil will revisit 25 handle again after the current recovery fades.

On the data front, Australia home loans rose 2.6% in December versus expectation of 2.9%. Eurozone Q4 GDP will be the main focus in European session while Germany and Italy will also release Q4 GDP. US retail sales is the main focus in US session with import price index, business inventories and U of Michigan confidence also featured.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.07; (P) 112.32; (R1) 113.68; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 125.85 should now target long term fibonacci level at 106.63. On the upside, above 114.20 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 medium term top is developing into a deeper correction. Further fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 at 106.63 and possibly below. Break of 115.96 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of completion of the correction. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of rebound.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD Home Loans Dec 2.60% 2.90% 1.80% 1.90%
7:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jan F -0.80% -0.80%
7:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jan F 0.50% 0.50%
7:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.30% 0.30%
9:00 EUR Italian GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.30% 0.20%
9:30 GBP Construction Output M/M Dec 2.10% -0.50%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec 0.30% -0.70%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.30% 0.30%
13:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Jan -1.20% -1.20%
13:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Jan 0.10% -0.10%
13:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Jan 0.10% -0.10%
15:00 USD Business Inventories Dec 0.10% -0.20%
15:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Feb P 93 92

This article originally appeared at Action Forex.

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