Aussie is steady in tight range after RBA kept interest rate unchanged at 2.00% and published a rather balance statement. The central noted that “there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy, with inflation close to target”. But “consumer price inflation is likely to remain low over the next year or two.” And, this “may provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.” Regarding recent volatility, RBA noted that “funding conditions for emerging market sovereigns and lesser-rated corporates have tightened”. But ” funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.” Overall, the statement indicates that RBA is not in any rush to cut interest rates again.
In Eurozone, ECB president Mario Draghi warned again the downside risks were increasing due to recent turmoil in emerging markets. And, some emerging economists “remain vulnerable to an abrupt shift in risk sentiment”. Meanwhile, “inflation dynamics are also tangibly weaker than we expected in December”. And he reiterated that the central bank will “review and possibly reconsider” the stimulus measures at the March meeting. The December meeting was perceived as a disappointment to the markets. And there are talks that ECB could finally raise the EUR 60b asset purchase target in March.
While sterling strengthens against dollar and euro this week after better than expected data, it’s facing the risk of BoE “Super Thursday”. The quarterly inflation report will be released together with rate decision and minutes. There are talk that BoE would downgrade both growth and inflation forecasts in the report. These would be the result of international developments as well as softening of energy prices. It should be noted there was a near 40% fall in oil price since the November inflation report. Policy makers could also further push away the timing of the expected rate hike due to such developments and it’s getting much less likely that BoE would hike this year.
Elsewhere, Japan monetary base rose 28.9% yoy in January. Swiss retail sales, German unemployment, Eurozone PPI and unemployment rate, UK construction PMI will be released in European session. The US calendar is empty today.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7064; (P) 0.7092; (R1) 0.7142; More…
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. The recovery from 0.6826 is viewed as a correction. Below 0.7000 minor support will suggest that it’s completed and will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6826 low. Above 0.7140 will extend the rise but we’d expect further loss of upside momentum ahead.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.1079, 2011 high, is still in progress. Further fall would be seen towards 0.6008 key support level. At this point, we’d stay cautious on strong support above 0.6008 to bring medium term bottoming. However, downside acceleration could raise the chance of break of 0.6008. We’ll pay attention to the development closely. In any case, break of 0.7384 resistance is need to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.
Economic Indicators Update
|23:50||JPY||Monetary Base Y/Y Jan||28.90%||28.30%||29.50%|
|3:30||AUD||RBA Rate Decision||2.00%||2.00%||2.00%|
|8:15||CHF||Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Dec||-1.30%||-2.10%|
|8:55||EUR||German Unemployment Change Jan||-10K||-14K|
|8:55||EUR||German Unemployment Rate Jan||6.30%||6.30%|
|9:30||GBP||Construction PMI Jan||57.6||57.8|
|10:00||EUR||Eurozone PPI M/M Dec||-0.40%||-0.20%|
|10:00||EUR||Eurozone PPI Y/Y Dec||-3.20%|
|10:00||EUR||Eurozone Unemployment Rate Dec||10.50%||10.50%|
This article originally appeared at Action Forex.